While tantalum supply has, so far, seen limited closures from COVID-19, the industry is reeling from reduced demand into H2 20‌20. Only 7% of tantalum mine supply is sourced from China so the industry saw limited disruption early on in the year from Chinese closures to industry and shipping. As the virus has spread through the ROW, focus has turned to the major production hubs of Central Africa and Brazil. Brazilian producer Mineração Taboca suspended activities through the month of April but has now returned to business. Mine closures and logistics bottlenecks are now affecting Central Africa as the industry watches the situation develop.

COVID-19 has, however, had a major impact on demand, especially for the automotive and aerospace sectors. With factories closed and few sales taking place, consumption of tantalum-containing superalloys in aircraft engines has declined sharply, while demand for tantalum capacitors in the automotive sector has also slowed. Strong recovery is expected, but not until at least late 20‌20/early 20‌21, and possibly later for aerospace.

Meanwhile, tantalum concentrate prices continued to recover through H1 20‌20, as new producers in Australia (as a by-product of lithium) have failed to return to ramp-up. New operations saw a hive of activity through the first half of 20‌19 but reduced their output in H2, due to hesitation in the development of the Chinese EV market for lithium, and tantalum prices increased accordingly. With COVID-19 lockdowns now limiting global industry in the ROW, resulting in lower demand for both lithium and tantalum, it is likely that Australian producers will take even longer to return to the market.

Roskill’s Tantalum: Outlook to 20‌29 report was published in March 20‌20 and highlights the major trends in tantalum supply and demand affecting the industry over the coming decade: